Behind the Ad: Things are getting ugly in the Indiana GOP Senate primary

By Richard K. Barry

Who: Senator Richard Lugar (R-Ind.).

Where: Indiana.

What's going on: Dick Lugar has begun airing a new ad in what is becoming a very ugly primary battle with Indiana state treasurer Richard Mourdock, going so far as to call his challenger a liar.

As The Huffington Post writes:

When they resort to negative ads, it is often a sign that front-running campaigns -- like Lugar's at the moment -- are worried. Indeed, a pair of polls released Monday by Democratic and Republican opponents of Lugar both found Mourdock has climbed to within 6 percentage points of Lugar, even though the incumbent senator remains broadly popular.

Part of Lugar's problem lately has been the pounding he's taken from both sides over the fact that he lives in Virginia, not Indiana. A local election commission ruled last week that he is not eligible to vote in his former hometown, although state officials have declared that he is eligible to run.

The ad is built around Lugar's contention that Mourdock is intentionally misrepresenting Lugar's position on Obamacare. Oh, heavens no. Not that.

At root, this is a battle between an establishment conservative, Lugar, and a Tea Party-backed insurgent, Mourdock, who has been endorsed by the Club for Growth, FreedomWorks, Citizens United, and the Tea Party Express.

With the primary two months away and things getting close, it may be hard to call this one, but I'm willing to bet the Democrats would rather run against the Tea Party guy than the one who has been around forever. 

From the movement that brought you Sharron Angle and Christine O'Donnell.

Here's the ad:


(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.) 

Behind the Ad: Pro-Santorum ad goes after Romney in Illinois

By Richard K. Barry

(Another installment in our "Behind the Ad" series.)

Who: The Red, White and Blue Fund, the Super PAC supporting Rick Santorum.

Where: Illinois.

What's going on: Rick Santorum's Super PAC is starting to run political ads in Illinois attacking Mitt Romney, part of a $310,000 ad buy in the state. Illinois holds their primary on Tuesday, February 20th.

The spot introduces voters to the "real Romney," the one who "raised job-killing taxes and fees," and "supported the Wall Street bailout putting America trillions of dollars in debt. It points to the Massachusetts health care law, which Romney signed, as the "blue print for Obamacare," ending with the statement that Rick Santorum is someone who can "create dynamic jobs and cut wasteful spending."

Romney's claim all along is that he is best positioned to improve the economy due to his business experience. Santorum is clearly trying to take on that perception by almost calling Romney a "tax and spend liberal" whose record on the economy is not what he says it is.

I'd say the ad plays fairly well to those who don't think Romney can be trusted, even on the one trick he'd like us to believe is his strong suit.

With days to go before the Illinois primary, Romney has a slight lead in a recent Chicago Tribune/WGN poll, but that could change. If Santorum manages to pull out a win in the state, things will get even tougher for Romney. Poor Mitt.

(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)

Behind the Ad: Gingrich super PAC attacks Romney on health care

By Richard K. Barry 

(Another installment in our "Behind the Ad" series.)

Who: Winning Our Future, Newt Gingrich's Super PAC, has said it will spend $6 million on ads to draw attention to Mitt Romney's health care law in Massachusetts. (Gingrich attacks Romney.)

Where: Florida, prior to next week's primary

What's going on: Despite the fact that Romney seems most vulnerable on the issue of his wealth and record at Bain Capital, the whole RomneyCare thing has hardly gone away. Gingrich is at least smart enough to know that seeing how it plays on top of everything else may not be a bad strategy.

The ad, no surprise, depicts Romney as a Massachusetts moderate in lockstep with President Obama, which will surely be red meat for Gingrich's growing base of Tea Party support. 

As we know, Romney did a pretty effective number on Gingrich in Iowa with his Super PAC money, so it seems obvious that Newt will push back with whatever he can find in Florida and beyond, now that he has another $5 million from his casino mogul friend Sheldon Adelson to play with.

(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)

Behind the Ad: Pro-Romney super PAC says Gingrich is no Ronald Reagan

By Richard K. Barry

(Another installment in our "Behind the Ad" series.)

Who: Restore Our Future, a Super PAC supporting former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney's bid for the GOP presidential nomination. (Romney attacks Gingrich.)

Where: Florida.

What's going on: The Super PAC is taking issue with Newt Gingrich's frequent mentions of Ronald Reagan. According to The New York Times' Nate Silver, Gingrich has actually dropped Reagan's name 55 times in the various nomination debates. As The Washington Post describes it, it is sometimes to honor one of the leading figures of modern conservatism, but it is also to claim that he, Gingrich, had worked closely with the former president.

On the latter point, the ad takes aim at the claim that the two men were at all close, stating that Reagan only mentioned Gingrich once in his diaries and there only to criticize him for his ideas that would "cripple our defense program."

Given how much Newt likes to present himself as a student of history, it seems rather sweet that the ad portrays this sanctimonious twit as little more than a footnote of the Reagan years. My guess is that poking fun at Gingrich's self-importance is not a bad approach. The more we see of him, the more this is likely to become his Achilles heel. Is there any conservative "success" for which he won't take credit? I give the ad two thumbs up.

(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)

Behind the Ad: Rick Santorum goes after "liberal" Mitt Romney in South Carolina

By Michael J.W. Stickings

(Another installment in our "Behind the Ad" series.)

Who: Rick Santorum attacks Mitt Romney. 

Where: South Carolina.

What's going on: It's pretty obvious. As Mark Halperin explains: "New Santorum South Carolina TV spot finally goes where many conservatives (and commentators) expected Romney rivals to go." This is a long, long time coming. Gingrich has gone there as well, making the anti-Romney case that we've been waiting for, but this makes the case more clearly than any effort previously, particularly in targeting Romneycare as a glaring problem (from a conservative perspective) from Romney's past. (Santorum is also calling on Romney to release his tax returns. What's he hiding, anyway?)

Basically, Santorum has one shot at the nomination, and that's to win South Carolina -- or at the very least to do so well there, a clear and strong second with some momentum, that Gingrich drops out and the race effectively becomes Romney-Santorum (with Paul still in it as the libertarian alternative). He likely still wouldn't be able to knock off Romney, who has the organization and elite support to win the nomination even in the face of a great deal of conservative opposition within the Republican Party, but he's obviously trying to capitalize on his social conservative (and simply conservative) bona fides (particularly now that the religious right is in his corner) and appeal to the huge constituency in the party that isn't just skeptical of Romney but even actively loathes him.

The problem for Romney isn't that this ad (and the attacks in South Carolina) will deny him the nomination but that the accumulation of attacks on Romney from his fellow Republicans, characterizing him as either a vulture capitalist or not conservative and barely even a Republican, or both, will eat into his support from conservatives come general election time. I suspect that conservatives will generally come to accept him as the only choice they have against Obama, but it is likely that enthusiasm on the right will be extremely low, possibly leading to significantly depressed voter turnout by the Republican base.

Romney may be screwed no matter how he plays it. If he panders still more to the right, he risks losing whatever appeal he has left for independents and disgruntled Democrats. But if he shifts to the center and in some way points to his more moderate bona fides, he risks losing conservatives altogether. There may be a narrow path between those two alternatives, but in taking that he risks alienating both sides and appealing only to his core support from establishmentarian Republican elites. In any event, the damage done by ads like this one may extend much further than South Carolina.

Behind the Ad: Ron Paul targets "serial hypocrite" Santorum in South Carolina

By Michael J.W. Stickings

As we proceed through the primaries and then the general election campaign, not only for the presidency but for Congress and various governorships as well, we're going to be posting some of the more prominent political ads -- in our new "Behind the Ad" series -- and offering some beneath-the-surface analysis. This will complement our extensive political coverage. And, besides, who doesn't like watching political ads, especially when they're viciously negative?

The image here, as you may know, is from Lyndon Johnson's famous 1964 daisy ad, one of the most effective ads in U.S. political history -- not that LBJ was going to have much trouble with the right-wing Goldwater, but this association of the Republican with nuclear armageddon was awfully powerful. (You can watch it here.)

Okay, let's get started...

**********

Who: Ron Paul attacks Rick Santorum.

Where: South Carolina.

What's going on: Just as he attacked Gingrich as a "serial hypocrite" in Iowa, contributing to Newt's collapse in the polls (and dismal showing in the caucuses), Paul is going after the surging Santorum in South Carolina, the next battleground state after New Hampshire.

In a way, though, SC matters more than NH at this point. Romney will win NH, his backyard, in a landslide. The only question is by how much. Paul will finish second, most likely, but will struggle from then on. Why is he going after Gingrich and Santorum?

On the one hand, he may well want Romney to win -- if it's not going to be him (which it won't be). It makes sense that he would prefer the business-minded, plutocratic Romney to social conservative authoritarians like Gingrich and Santorum, whatever their allegiance to the unregulated free market. And in any event he may realize that Romney is the likely nomination.

On the other hand, he may (delusionally) think he still has a shot and is hoping to take down the anti-Romney alternatives one by one so as to be the only one left standing. There's no way the GOP would pick him over Romney, but, well, who knows what he thinks.

Whatever the case, he may just want to make sure he finishes a strong second, assuming he stays in the race for the long haul (like Pat Buchanan did in '92), so as to have a place of prominence at the convention and more generally within the party. It's not that he'll be the veep pick or have a Cabinet post in any Republican administration, but he can still be a major player, his right-wing libertarian agenda part of the party platform whether the establishmentarian elites like it or not.

At this point, it looks like Santorum is the only credible anti-Romney left. (Yes, I'm assuming that Gingrich is done. Right now he's just pathetically lashing out, once more the egomaniacal bully, at both Romney and fellow conservative Santorum. Wasn't it just a short while ago that Newt was bemoaning all the negativity when it was directed at him?) And so he's the obvious target for Paul's venom. And the place to take him down is South Carolina, where Romney has the lead but Santorum is coming on strongly (and may even be running a very close second) and, with a strong showing, could turn the race into a one-on-one affair, with Paul pushed out.

Just imagine the look on Romney's face when he first saw this ad. And imagine him rubbing his hands together gleefully. If he ends up winning the nomination, he should give Paul an expensive gift (or profusive thanks), just like a running back rewards his o-line after a great season. There would many reasons for Romney's success, starting perhaps with behind-the-scenes Romney booster Karl Rove, but it certainly helps that Paul, who has no chance of winning the nomination himself, is helping to clear the path of major obstacles.

MItt Romney's own words, taken out of context because turnabout is fun

By Richard K. Barry

You may recall the Mitt Romney campaign ad in which he takes a quote by President Obama out of context to make it look like Obama is saying, "if we keep talking about the economy, we're going to lose." Those words were in fact spoken by a strategist for Sen. John McCain during the 2008 campaign, and Obama was simply citing something his opponent's team had said.

To make matters worse, a Romney aid defended the ad, claiming that this is standard practice in politics. It's only standard practice if you're a liar, of course. What Romney's campaign did was to lie by misattribution. A lie is a lie.

Just for fun, the folks at ThinkProgress strung together a bunch of quotes by Romney taken out of context in much the same way. It's a silly little exercise, but it makes a point. How do you like it, Mitt? Is this okay with you?

(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)

Target Newt: Ron Paul airs ad slamming Gingrich as a serial hypocrite

By Michael J.W. Stickings

When you're on top, people try to bring you down.

Actually, while this may be a general rule, it hasn't really applied to the 2012 Republican presidential race. Romney has been at or near the top more or less throughout the campaign so far, but he has, interestingly enough, avoided the vicious attacks one might have expected. Even Romneycare, his (deeply unpopular among Republicans) proto-Obamacare health reform in Massachusetts, has been spared. Sure, Rick Perry went after it in a TV ad aired in October, but people didn't seem to care, and it continues to be one of the surprises of this campaign that it hasn't been a dominant issue, the main target of the various anti-Romneys who have alternated as Romney's main rival.

But there's a reason for this, and it's that the anti-Romneys have all been incredibly weak, rising and falling quickly: Michele Bachmann, Perry, Herman Cain. They've been struggling so much either to get to the top or to stay there that they haven't had the comfort of launching a sustained attack on Romney from a position of security.

Plus, they've all been so incredibly incompetent. Bachmann is the best communicator of the three, I suppose, she wasn't Romney's main rival for long, and it certainly wasn't long before her message imploded, her campaign right along with it. Perry is a terrible communicator whose campaign has been a string of gaffes and embarrassments. Cain can only communicate simple things and has no political capacity whatsoever for anything other than self-aggrandizing inanity, and of course his campaign, ever since he gained some notoriety as a possibly serious contender, has been plagued by scandal, stupidity, and ineptitude. All of this has allowed Romney to remain above the fray, deeply unpopular with Republicans but on top because the anti-Romney constituency that dominates the GOP has been fractured, unable and unwilling to get behind a credible alternative.

Until now.

Until Newt.

And it looks like he might just pull this off.

(And, yes, I still can't believe it's come to this. Like many others, I'd written him off long ago.)

The way things are going, the race will come down to Romney and Gingrich, with Ron Paul likely still around as the libertarian alternative with a small but enthusiastic base in the party. At some point, that is, Romney will have to join the fray. He'll be pulled in, regardless. And once he's secure as the anti-Romney, Gingrich will no doubt turn his attention to trying to bring down Romney. But that's down the road, perhaps after Gingrich firmly establishes his position by doing well in Iowa, the the next battlefield in Romney's backyard of New Hampshire. Then things could get nasty.

For now, though, it's the others with no hope at all of winning who are aiming their sights at those at the top. We've seen Jon Huntsman do it in presenting himself as the only reasonable alternative to the extremism that dominates the Republican presidential field, but now it's Paul taking the initiative with a blistering assault on... Newt Gingrich:

Texas Rep. Ron Paul is tearing into Republican presidential rival Newt Gingrich with a new web ad that ranks among the most scathing of the year.

Hitting similar themes that the Democrats used earlier this week with a video highlighting Mitt Romney's litany of flip-flops, the Paul campaign blasts the former House speaker in a video entitled: "Newt Gingrich: Serial Hypocrisy."

Largely using news clips from recent weeks, the ad seeks to paint Mr. Gingrich as a paid hatchet man for the health-care industry and the mortgage giant Freddie Mac. It is also heavy with clips of conservative icons such as Rush Limbaugh and Rep. Paul Ryan taking swipes at Mr. Gingrich’s positions.

The video will not run on television. But the Paul campaign is promising to send it "to a far-reaching email list of conservative voters nationally, including in key early voting states."

Newt has certainly provided a lot of material over the years. He used to care about climate change, for example, and he actually has somewhat humane views on immigration, and earlier this year he even went after Republican wunderkind Paul Ryan, calling Ryan's budget plan "radical" and "right-wing social engineering" before ultimately caving in, apologizing, and betting for forgiveness. He may not have quite the unacceptable past that Romney does (he's certainly never been a moderate, not even close; a good term for him might be "eccentric conservative"), and he may not be quite as shameless a political opportunist as Romney is (though he certainly is one, flipping and flopping on a wide variety of issues, including notably the military campaign in Libya this year), but there's a lot for his opponents to exploit.

And now that he's the co-frontrunner with Romney, and even on top in some states, building his campaign as quickly as possible now that he's actually got a shot, he's an obvious target. Maybe Paul thinks it will soon be his turn at the top and is only trying to expedite Gingrich's inevitable collapse. Whatever the case, it will never be Paul, and a Gingrich collapse would only mean an easier Romney win, but nonetheless Paul's efforts to go after Gingrich are significant. They indicate that Gingrich is indeed a genuine contender to be reckoned with, that Gingrich will have to start playing defence, and that the race, with the voting set to start just over a month from now, is about to get a whole lot uglier.