Romney: I have many friends who are also privileged rich douchebags

By Michael J.W. Stickings

"Romneying," one of the key neologisms of the political season, from Dave Weigel: "Accidentally bragging about your place high up in the economic stratosphere."

The thing is, if you keep doing it, it is really accidental? Or is it just who you are? Which is to say, a privileged rich douchebag. Which is to say, Mitt Romney.

Remember when Romney said that he has "some great friends who are NASCAR team owners." He was asked whether he's a fan of car racing. He said "[n]ot as closely as some of the most ardent fans," but instead of leaving it at that launched seamlessly into Romneying.

Well, he did it again yesterday, also in a sports context:

Mitt Romney described two National Football League owners as "friends" during a Monday evening radio show, a comment that echoed one made earlier that he has "some friends who are NASCAR team owners."

The comment came on an Alabama sports talk show, while Romney was discussing where former Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning should sign.

After joking he hoped Manning would sign somewhere where his New England Patriots wouldn't have to face him often, Romney mentioned the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins and said "both owners are friends of mine."

It's bad enough that he was talking sports, about which he obviously knows very little (like, duh, the Jets and Fins are both in the Pats' division), but why the Romneying? Why brag about being so crazy rich that your friends are other crazy rich people? (Did his people not supply him with enough pandering speaking points? Could he not have sucked up even harder to Alabama football fans while hedging his Alabama/Auburn bets?) Why, when you're pathetically pandering for votes in crazy poor states like Alabama and Mississippi, remind everyone that you're anything but a man of the people?

Oh, right, he couldn't help himself. He's Mitt Romney.

Peyton Manning should go to the New York Jets -- no question about it

By Richard K. Barry

Waving goodbye and hello

As any football fan knows by now, Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts ended their 14-year relationship when the team released him on Wednesday. Manning brought the Colts a Super Bowl and four NFL MVP awards but it's a tough business and the club's management felt it was time to say goodbye.

In fairness, Manning is about to turn 36, a pretty advanced age for a QB. He did miss the entire 2011 NFL season with a neck injury and, though doctors have apparently said he is okay to play, it's not at all clear that he would be the Peyton Manning of old. And, oh yeah, they would have had to pay him a $28 million bonus if they decided to keep him. And double oh yeah, the Colts were so bad last year that they are in line to get a first round draft pick that could land them Andrew Luck, reported to be one of the best quarterbacks ever to come out of college.

So, yes, it was time for Manning to go. And, as much as the Colts would probably love him to just retire so he would only have played for Indy in his entire career, which would in some sense be cleaner, he says he wants to continue in the league. Thus, we are about to begin what most observers call perhaps the biggest free agent sweepstakes in the history of the NFL.

Everyone is abuzz with talk of who needs him most and where he might want to go. Teams in need that come up in conversation are Washington, Tennessee, Miami, Seattle, Arizona, Cleveland, Kansas City, Jacksonville, Denver, San Francisco, even Houston.
But my personal favourite is the New York Jets. Whether or not the Jets are interested is another question, but here are my reasons he should want to go there and why the Jets should want him, in no particular order:

• The Jets haven't been to the Super Bowl since Joe Namath and company won it for them in 1969. The Giants have been there five times and have won four. The Jets and the Giants have always hated each other. Jets coach Rex Ryan has been mouthing off over the past few years about who the best team in the city is. We know the answer to that question and the Jets would do almost anything to change it. Manning could bring them a Super Bowl. I also think Ryan would love the extra attention of having Peyton around.
• Jets QB Mark Sanchez has been a disappointment and is not developing quickly enough. See point one.
• Manning will be 36 soon and doesn't have that many good years left. He'll want to go to a team that is ready to win and the Jets are.
• Brother Eli would be playing not only in the same town but in the same stadium. The brothers seem close and I suspect this would be considered a plus for both of them. Eli has said as much.
• I think Peyton would like to go up against Tom Brady twice a year in the AFC East. Great rivalry. 
• Here's the big one: Peyton Manning is a very bright, articulate guy who loves the camera, loves media attention and who will be around the game for a long time to come as a media personality and ambassador for the game once his playing days are over. My guess is he would love to end his career in the media centre of the world. It will enhance his profile even more, if that's possible, making him even bigger than he already is. For example, you'd probably see him and his little brother doing Saturday Night Live skits and whatever. Anyway, Peyton was made for New York and I just can't see him wanting to go to a secondary media market. And next to New York City, every place else is a secondary media market. 
• A corollary to the last one is that with Eli's two Super Bowl rings and Peyton being Peyton, can you imagine what the Madison Avenue advertising execs could do with these guys if they played in the same town? They'd need their own Brinks truck just to transport their daily earnings.

Okay, it may not go that way for a bunch of reasons, but I think, if Peyton Manning really understood his own interests, it would go that way.

There. No one asked me, but that's my two cents.

(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)

Shear the Beard: Yet another reason to love the Pittsburgh Steelers

By Michael J.W. Stickings

And I certainly do.

Via The Post Game, one of my favourite players, Brett Keisel, has his beard shaved off for a great cause:

NFL 2011: Super Bowl XLVI

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Well, here we are. After a long and ridiculously weird season, it's come down to this one game in Indianapolis with all sorts of dramatic storylines:

-- Brady and Belichick in their fifth Super Bowl (more even than my beloved Bradshaw and Noll), having won three, but no win since 2005, a long seven-year drought for this NFL dynasty.

-- A repeat of the dramatic Super Bowl XLII four years ago, the famous "helmet catch" game (one of the most famous plays in NFL history, if not nearly as awesome as the winning Roethlisberger-to-Holmes pass in Super Bowl XLIII), with the Patriots out for revenge.

-- Eli Manning going for his second Super Bowl win, which would put him ahead of Peyton, his older brother and the (much?) better QB.

-- Eli going for this win in his brother's home stadium and of course the Pats going for the win in the stadium of one of their main rivals.

-- The Pats' high-flying offence up against the Giants' outstanding defensive line, along with the Giants' more balanced attack, led by Manning and an outstanding trio of WRs (Cruz, Nicks, Manningham), up against a weak but perhaps under-appreciated Pats' D (with Belichick's supposed genius behind it).

Yeah, I'm excited. As a football fan, this is great matchup, and I'm just hoping for a game that lives up to the hype.

As a Steelers fan, I'm still depressed. This should have been us, if not for all those injuries, and I take some comfort in the fact that the Giants were a weak team this year (losing both games to the 'Skins, for example), their appearance in the Super Bowl yet more proof of this year's weirdness) and that we kicked the Patriots' ass when we were more or less healthy.

Yeah, I'm excited about this game, but I'm already looking ahead to the draft, free agency, and next year -- and to the Steelers getting their act together after a rough and embarrassing January (the loss to the Broncos, the retirement-firing of offensive coordinator Bruce Arians, etc.).

**********

Anyway, let's look at how we're going and get to our picks.

We went pick'em for the regular season, and Richard won, but for the playoffs we're using the spread and a new scoring system:

-- Wild Card round: 2 points per game;

-- Divisional round: 3 points per game;

-- Conference Finals: 4 points per game; and

-- Super Bowl: 5 points.

Here's how we did last week (conference finals): 

MJWS: 1-1 = 4 points

RKB: 1-1 = 4 points 

The Kid: 1-1 = 4 points

We all picked the Patriots, who failed to cover, and the Giants, who pulled off the OT win in San Francisco.

Here's how we're going so far: 

MJWS: 6-4 = 16 points

RKB: 4-6 = 12 points

The Kid: 4-6 = 10 points

We also picked the Pro Bowl last week -- a more stupid game than usual. (Please, NFL, cancel this nonsense and replace it with a skills competition or something... or nothing. Who needs it?) We made it half a point. I correctly picked the AFC, while Richard and The Kid went with the NFC. So, with the Pro Bowl included: 

MJWS: 7-4 = 16.5 points
RKB: 4-7 = 12 points
The Kid: 4-7 = 10 points

Which means that Richard could pass me this week... except that we're both taking the Giants. Here's the line:

N.Y. Giants vs. New England (-3)

Stickings' Pickings

Pick: N.Y. Giants.

The hype these past two weeks has been all Giants, but I've been with the Giants all along. They have the more balanced offence and by far the better defence. Yes, Brady & Co. can put up points, but the Giants' d-line has been simply awesome this year, with Jason Pierre-Paul emerging as one of the league's true studs. And Manning has been rather impressive this year as well, airing the ball out to perhaps the best group of WRs in the league (yes, perhaps better than my beloved Wallace, Brown, Ward, Sanders, and Cotchery -- no, I'll still take my guys). With the Giants able to keep the Pats' safeties close to the line with the rushing combo of Bradshaw and Jacobs, Manning should be able to find those guys in single coverage a lot today.

And while the Pats certainly have a good enough o-line to protect Brady most of the time, Pierre-Paul, Tuck, and Umenyiora should be able to get enough pressure on him to limit his effectiveness. And, of course, their fantastic TE Gronkowski has a bad ankle. Brady still has weapons (Welker, Branch, and Hernandez, along with the hobbled Gronk), and the Pats may be able to tire the Giants' d-line by running the ball a lot early (even with a mediocre-at-best running game), but what should be a close game will see the Giants with the clear advantage. I'm a little worried that the Giants are getting too much love and that the Patriots are being underestimated -- the Giants don't seem to play well when they're the favourites, while we all know Brady is fully capable of playing at an extraordinarily high level and could prove to be the best player in this game -- but, to me, dispassionate analysis leads to this conclusion:

The New York Giants will win Super Bowl XLVI.

Just not by as much as some think. My prediction: Giants 30, Patriots 27.

And I'll be rooting for the Giants. Not because I like them (other than Pierre-Paul) but because as a Steelers fan I just can't root for one of our main rivals. Besides, it'd be fun to see these dynastic Patriots lose a second Super Bowl to the Giants.

As for food, we're doing fajitas tonight, and I'm just about to head to the fridge for another Liberty Ale from San Francisco's Anchor Brewing Co. Because nothing spells "liberty" (in an American exceptionalism sort of way) quite like the raging consumerism of Super Bowl Sunday. We all think we're free, even when we're not. False consciousness? Let's not go there. We have brands to worship and ads to manipulate us.

So are you ready?

Foooooooooootballllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Barry's Tea Leaves

Pick: N.Y. Giants

I'm going to say very little about the Super Bowl. When your team is in the big game, you don't mess around with picking winners and losers. You just hope they win. So, whether or not I actually think the Giants will win is irrelevant at this point. 

Unlike 2008, this is a very evenly matched game. Anything could happen. Brady could have a big game. The Giants D could get to Brady on a regular basis making it hard for him to get on track.

The one thing that has been consistent all year for the Giants, who had a terrible running game for most of it, is that when Bradshaw runs well everything seems to fall into place. That's what I'll be watching for. 

And, whatever the detractors might say, Eli is good when it really counts. I'm glad to have the kid on my side. 

While I know most people won't buy this, I'll be okay if the Giants lose. They barely made it to the playoffs at all and have had a great run. Of course, I'll be a lot happier if they win. 

So, in the name of Ernie Koy, Tucker Frederickson, Spider Lockhart, Joe Morrison, Homer Jones, Doug Kotar, Bob Tucker, Jack Gregory, Brad Van Pelt, and so many others who toiled for the G-Men when the pickings were slim,  I say: Go Giants!!!

(1967 New York Giants)

Comfortable Kid

Pick: N.Y. Giants.

**********

With some Steelers bias, some clips from Super Bowls past...

The Immaculate Reception:

The David Tyree Helmet Catch:

James Harrison's 100-yard interception return:

Roethlisberger to Holmes:

The 1966 New York Giants: A long way away from any Super Bowl

By Richard K. Barry

By 1966 I was already a huge New York Giants fan and had exactly 20 years of disappointment to look forward to. Neighbourhood kids used to knock on my door on Sunday afternoons to see if I would come out and play or, they used to ask, was I going to stay inside and "watch the Giants lose."

Yes, it was that bad. 

But stay inside to watch the Giants I did, and it's something I've been doing ever since. 

You may know 1966 was a special year for the New York Giants, sort of.

A Bleacher Report article this past summer listed the group that year as number 26 of "The 30 Worst Team in NFL History."

So, what, you may ask, is the relationship of that woeful season to today's Super Bowl? Well, as the Green Bay Packers were finishing an impressive 12-2 regular season record and on their way to beating the Kansas City Chiefs in the very first Super Bowl, the Giants were going 1-12-1.

What made this even more difficult was the fact that the Giants previously had two assistant coaches, Vince Lombardi and Tom Landry, who would face each other in the NFL championship game that season as head coaches when the Packers beat the Cowboys.

My guess is that the 20 lost years for the Giants would never have happened if they had been able to hold on to either one of these legends. 

Just to add a little insult to injury, the Giant's quarterback during that stellar 1-12-1 season was Earl Morrall, who left the team two years later to go to Baltimore where he stepped in for the injured Johnny Unitas and proceeded to lead the team to a 13-1 record and an appearance in the Super Bowl (albeit to lose to the Jets).

And then Morrall went to the Dolphins in 1972 and played a pivotal role in their undefeated season. 

Just some fun facts to think about.

Here's the entry from the Bleacher Report on that terrible 1966 season for the Giants:

The 1966 season got off on an indifferent note for New York. But any indecision one had about how the Giants were going to do that year would be solved after watching the remainder of the regular season. 

A 34-34 tie on the road in Week 1 against the Pittsburgh Steelers was followed by a 52-7 thrashing at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys one game later. Big Blue then broke through with a victory against the Redskins on Oct. 16. That was followed by an eight-game swoon to end the season. 

The defense, once the pride and joy of Giants football, was awful. They gave up 501 points in 14 games, including allowing 72 to Washington on Nov. 22.

I mean, the Giants were so bad they even tied, then lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers that year, who were 5-8-1 (inside joke).

Long time ago, but interesting to remember it all.

Here's to hoping for better things for the Giants at today's Super Bowl.


(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)

Will I ever learn to trust the success of the New York Giants?

By Richard K. Barry

Y.A. Tittle

Well, my New York Giants are in the Super Bowl this weekend. I have been living and dying with the team for more than five decades and, as much as I think they are a good team right now that can win the big game, I'm sceptical. That's the way it is with me and a lot of Giants fans. We haven't expected a lot over these many years and haven't usually been wrong.

I know that if you started watching the Giants in the mid-1980s you might think I'm crazy. After all, the G-Men have been in the NFL championship game four times and won three of them. If they win on Sunday, that'll make them four for five over a 25 year stretch, which is nothing to sneeze at.

But if you started watching the Giants in the early 60s, as I did, you would have had to live through 20 years of some of the worst football ever played anywhere. From 1964 to 1978 that means they had only two winning seasons and made no playoff appearances. Sure, things got better with the arrival of Parcells and Taylor and Simms. Sure, they've been a mostly respectable franchise for a long time now. But I can't get those 20 years out of my mind.

I'll be thrilled if they win on Sunday, but won't expect it. Years of watching players like Joe Pisarcik, Jerry Golsteyn, and Randy Dean lead the team through the lean times has ruined me. And then when they did have a decent QB over that time like Norm Snead, Craig Morton, Fran Tarkenton, or Earl Morrall, they never seemed to be able to do for the Giants what they did elsewhere.

I'm not bitter. I just have really low expectations.

Remember, when I first started watching Giants' football, they just finished a run as a very good franchise with players like Frank Gifford, Sam Huff, Roosevelt Brown, and Alex Webster. But that was mostly over by the time I was old enough to pay attention.

To be fair, I vaguely remember when quarterback Y.A. Tittle came to New York in 1961 from San Francisco. He's was already an accomplished QB by then and proceeded to lead the team to three straight Eastern Division titles. To give you an idea of how good Tittle was, in 1963 he set what was then an NFL record by throwing 36 touchdown passes.

But I barely remember Tittle, what I remember is my father talking about how good Tittle was. And then Tittle was gone and the first 20 years of my life as a football fan were spent rooting for a really bad team. Over that time it never occurred to me that the Giants could win anything, that they might be in playoff games or fight for championships. It was just a given that when the regular season was over, the team went home and I watched teams I really didn't care about continue on.

It's taken me a long time to get used to having anything at stake in post-season play.

Don't get me wrong. I love my Giants. It's just that I will always see them as loveable losers no matter how good they get. It's burned in my brain that way. I just don't trust their success. Never have. Never will. That's just the way it is with me.

(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)

NFL 2011: Playoffs -- Championship Round

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Who cares about football with Newtmania sweeping the nation? Okay, I live in another nation, thankfully, but even here, north of the border, Newt is the big story. Well, okay, maybe only at this blog, but still. It's crazy. President Newt? Is that even possible? (Short answer: no. Longer answer: never.)

No, we still care about football here, particularly Richard, a life-long Giants fan who grew up near NYC, and while my spirits are still drained from that Steelers loss a couple of weeks ago, I'm still enough of a football fan to care about today's games. Though, I admit it, it pains to me to root for the Patriots and Giants. They're just not as detestable as those other teams coached by the Harbaughs.

Anyway, let's look at how we're going and get to our picks -- even though it's already halfway through the second game.

We went pick'em for the regular season, and Richard won, but now we're using the spread and a new scoring system:

-- Wild Card round: 2 points per game;

-- Divisional round: 3 points per game;

-- Conference Finals: 4 points per game; and

-- Super Bowl: 5 points.

 

Here's how we did last week (divisional round): 

MJWS: 2-2 = 6 points

RKB: 2-2 = 6 points 

The Kid: 0-4 = 0 points 

 

Ouch. Tough week for The Kid. As for me, I was 0-2 on Saturday and 2-0 on Sunday. Actually, we all went 0-2 on Saturday.

 

I certainly don't regret taking the Saints, nor even the truly awful Tim Tebow plus 13.5 points -- that's just too big a line. I just didn't think he and that ridiculous offence would suck that badly against the Pats and their mediocre (at best) D. I was (barely) right to go with the Texans, getting 7.5 points against the Ravens. They lost by seven. And Richard and I both thought the Giants would cover in Green Bay. The difference is that he actually picked them to win. I didn't go that far.

 

When you think about it, though, it made sense. The Giants offence was one of the best in the league down the stretch. New York has one of the best receiving corps in the league and a better running game than the Pack. Eli is no Rodgers, but he's undeniably been a near-elite QB this year. The Giants D-line is awesome, while the Pack have struggled on D all year. And while the Packers had two weeks off (and Rodgers three) and hadn't played a really meaningful game in ages, the Giants were peaking at just the right time. Yes, the Giants had some luck on their side last week, but even so they were the better team. By a lot.

Anyway, here's how we're going so far in the playoffs:

MJWS: 5-3 = 12 points

RKB: 3-5 = 8 points

The Kid: 3-5 = 6 points 

 

Here are today's games:

Baltimore at New England (-7)

N.Y. Giants at San Francisco (-2.5)

And our picks:

Stickings' Pickings

Picks: New England, N.Y. Giants.

I was going back and forth on today's early game but ended up taking the Pats. I just thought they had too much offence even for the Ravens and would win by at least a touchdown. Brady & Co. just seemed a bit off today. I'll admit, though, Flacco always surprises me with how well he can play, if only in spurts, and he gave his team a chance if not to win at least to tie. Cundiff almost never misses a FG attempt like that -- 31 yards. He's usually money, as they say. Crazy. It's a good thing I don't gamble on this madness.

I've been on the Giants side all week, but the weather had me doing some second-guessing earlier today. I've been down on the Niners all year, though, never believing in their D (even after they beat the Steelers, with Big Ben barely able to move), and while I've come to see how good they are, particularly their front seven, I just think the Giants are better, even in the rain: better QB, better receivers (though Vernon Davis has certainly decided to be an elite player again, and that TD in the first half showed just how good he can be), equally good RBs (Bradshaw/Jacobs vs. Gore), and that great D-line (Pierre-Paul, Tuck, Umenyiora, Canty). Sure, San Fran has the better secondary, a much better group of LBs (led by ILBs Willis and Bowman), and a really good D-line as well (led by DE Justin Smith), but I think the Giants can narrowly outscore the Niners in a low-scoring game. And that's where we are now: 10-7 Giants early in the third.

Barry's Tea Leaves

Picks: New England, N.Y. Giants.

I suspect that New England will beat Baltimore by more than one TD. Brady plus Welker plus Gronkowski vs. an aging Ravens D. And Flacco not being on the same planet as Brady. Something like that. Anyway, that should be enough.

As for the Giants and Niners, I have no idea. As a life-long Giants fan, I'm too close to this one to be objective. Whatever happens, the Giants have made this a fun season for me and for that I'm grateful. It's only a game and if it's not fun, why bother watching?

I'll say the Giants by a touchdown, but it could go either way. Here's to hoping the Giants' defence gives Alex Smith headaches all day. My guess is that this one will come down to QBs and that Manning will have a better game than Smith. Too many good qualities for both teams to list and these teams are too closely matched to bother going through it. Both sides probably consider themselves teams of destiny, I suppose, but someone has to win and someone has to lose. Too bad about that.

Comfortable Kid

Picks: New England, N.Y. Giants

(Looks like we're all going the same way today. -- MJWS)

NFL 2011: Playoffs -- Divisional Round

By Michael J.W. Stickings

You'll have to forgive me if I'm not quite as interested in the NFL as I was before the Steelers went out last week in Denver. I'll so a post-mortem on the Steelers' season later. I still don't want to think about it too much.

As you may know, if you've been following our picks this year, Richard narrowly won the regular season. He was 177-79, I was 175-81, and The Kid was 162-94. With our scoring system that included weekly locks and upsets, he beat me 191 to 185, with The Kid back at 166.

But that was all pick'em. Now, in the playoffs, we're using the spread and a new scoring system:

-- Wild Card round: 2 points per game;

-- Divisional round: 3 points per game;

-- Conference Finals: 4 points per game; and

-- Super Bowl: 5 points.

And here's how we did last week: 

MJWS: 3-1 = 6 points

The Kid: 3-1 = 6 points

RKB: 1-3 = 2 points

We all got the Giants over the Falcons, but even there I'd note that Richard can't think rationally about his beloved G-Men. The game The Kid and I got wrong was Lions-Saints. We both thought the 10.5-point spread was a bit too high and that the Lions might keep it close in a shootout, at least with some garbage-time fireworks. Needless to say, we underestimated the awfulness of the Lions D, and as good as we thought Brees & Co. was, they were even better.

We're already halfway through the divisional round, but here are the games and our picks:

Saturday

New Orleans (-3.5) at San Francisco

Denver at New England (-13.5)

Sunday

Houston at Baltimore (-7.5)

N.Y. Giants at Green Bay (-7.5)

And our picks:

Stickings' Pickings 

Picks: New Orleans, Denver, Houston, N.Y. Giants.

In standard pick'em, I'm taking all four favourites, but three of the lines are awfully high. But who knows? I went 0-2 yesterday.

I really though the Saints would beat the 49ers, but I've been down on San Fran all year and obviously haven't given them the respect they deserve -- even after they beat the Steelers in Week 15 (though a Steelers team with tons of injuries, including to Big Ben). They have an outstanding D and their offence is just good enough to keep them in every game they play. I've always been higher on Alex Smith than most, and he proved yesterday that he's a solid QB who can do it with his legs as well as with his decent arm. And he's got big-time weapons in Gore, Davis (who atoned for a disappointing season with a huge game yesterday (7 for 180 and 2 TDs), and Crabtree (who scored a TD yesterday and has emerged as a #1 receiver). But, seriously, what can you say about that Saints' D? Terrible. There's so much talent on the other side of the ball, despite all the turnovers yesterday, but the D couldn't stop the Niners when it really mattered, on that last scoring drive that ended with a Smith-to-David TD. Sure, this happens to a lot of teams, including Pittsburgh (notably in the home loss to Baltimore, where a win, in retrospect, would have given the Steelers the division title and the #1 overall seed in the AFC), but the Saints' weaknesses are glaring. New Orleans seemed to have all the momentum coming into the playoffs, and I think a lot of people were expecting (and salivating over the thought of) a Saints-Packers NFC championship game, but, well, full credit to the Niners for proving they're not (entirely) a fluke.

I was going back and forth on the late game yesterday but ended up taking the Tebowners and the points. Could the Pats win by two TDs? Of course. Were they going to? Maybe, but that's a lot of points to lay against a team with a good pass rush and an offence that -- let's be generous -- has been opportunistic and somehow able to overcome an astonishing lack of talent, starting at the QB position. Well, you know what happened. New England crushed Denver. (It takes a lot for me to root for the Pats. Tebow is a lot.) There's really nothing else to say. Brady and the Pats' passing game is awesome, and the Pats' D, while pretty bad all year, somehow manages to do just enough when it matters (though the Broncos didn't play nearly as well as they did against the Steelers -- where were all those dropped passes last week? where was Tebow looking completely flummoxed?). Needless to say, the Ravens will put up a much better fight next week.

Speaking of which, I'm taking the Ravens today. I'm not happy about giving the Texans (with a great running game, a great pass rush, some great LBs, and a very good secondary) so many points, but... wait. No. The game's about to start and I'm flipping to the Texans. I expect Baltimore to win, but, again, 7.5 points is a lot. There's no doubt the Ravens could make life miserable for T.J. Yates today, but they've been a weird team this year, beating some good teams and losing to some awful ones (e.g., Jags), and with the Texans strong at so many positions, I'll take the points. Thank you.

Another tough one later today. I'm taking the Packers to win, but I think the Giants will keep it close, much like their Week 13 battle, a 38-35 win for Green Bay. The question will be whether the Giants' excellent D-line can put enough pressure on Rodgers to knock him off his game. If they can do that, there's no doubt New York can win outright. As much as I may not want to admit it, Eli has emerged this year as a solid Top 10 QB, a notch below the elite (in a tier with Roethlisberger, Romo, and Ryan) but capable of putting up huge numbers and with those winning intangibles that you want in your QB -- what can I say, he's a winner, and he's a fantastic late-game, comeback performer). And if Bradshaw and Jacobs are running well, watch out. I still can't pick against Rodgers given all the talent he has in the passing game, and the Packers have a D that can force turnovers, but this one should be close.

**********

Watching the Texans-Ravens game... Seriously? What the hell was Jacoby Jones thinking? The Texans are looking good, the Ravens are struggling on offence early on, and you try to grab that bouncing ball with a Ravens player in your face? What a stupid, stupid move. Just the sort of thing that could turn this game in a hurry. Yup, TD Ravens. 7-3. You can't make mistakes like that in the playoffs, or ever, especially against teams like the Ravens, who make you pay.

Barry's Tea Leaves

Picks: New Orleans, Denver, Houston, N.Y. Giants.

New Orleans over San Francisco: Though I would love to see my Giants make it to the Super Bowl this year, my guess is that it's going to be the Saints for the NFC. Brees is so hot right now that I just don't see the Niners stopping him. I also wouldn't be surprised for Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles to have solid games on the ground, which will only make Brees more dangerous. In the end, the Niners just aren't going to be able to keep up offensively, so I expect a high-scoring game with New Orleans running away with it in the end. 

Denver over New England (with the points): Look, I have no doubt Brady will find a way to win this game, but 13.5 points is too much of a margin. Tebow will no doubt make this one interesting. As a sidebar, I saw a program on the NFL Network this week about the six QBs drafted ahead of Brady when he came into the league. The bottom line was that few of them could stand the bright lights of the big stage the way Brady could, though, on paper, they all looked better than Brady. I'm not saying I'm a true believer in Tebow, but the kid can turn it on when the whole world is watching, and I expect to see that this weekend. Like I said, New England wins, but the Broncos and Tebow will keep it close. 

Baltimore over the Texans: This will be a very close game, which I'll call for the Ravens, though I am not sure why. Let's just say that Ray Rice plus home field gives it to the Ravens. 

New York over Green Bay: There was a time when this would have been a sentimental pick just because I'm a Giants fan, but no longer. I really think they can take this game. The Giant's D is healthy and creating havoc for QBs, which I think they'll do for Rodgers. And Eli is playing some of the best football of his life. If the Giants can continue to run, as they have recently, which will help keep Rodgers off the field, that could be the difference. Whatever happens today, the Giants have salvaged a season that looked like a stinker a while ago. I'm proud of them. And then, after the Giants win this, they'll lose to the Saints. Oh, well.

Comfortable Kid

Picks: New Orleans, Denver, Baltimore, Green Bay.

(His only comment to me was the Saints "big-time" over the Niners. Yes, he too was wrong.)

NFL 2011: Playoffs -- Wild Card Round

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Congratulations, Richard.

Yes, RKB won our little three-man pick'em competition here. Let's look at the final regular season results:

Week 17 

RKB: 13-3 = 13 points 
MJWS: 11-5 (plus upset) = 13 points

The Kid: 12-4 = 12 points 

Regular Season -- Final 

RKB: 177-79 (10 upsets right, 3 locks wrong) = 191 points

MJWS: 175-81 (9 upsets right, 4 locks wrong) = 185 points
The Kid: 162-94 (7 upsets right, 5 locks wrong) = 166 points

You know what? We all did really well. Even The Kid, who got off to a slow start but kept pace with us the rest of the way. And along the way I thought we offered some excellent analysis. Personally, I think we're at least good enough for ESPN's NFL Countdown. (No, I don't take that as a self-compliment.)

But let's move on. (Richard's ego has already swelled too much.) It's the playoffs! And we're going to keep this competition going through the Super Bowl, though now we're going to be picking against the spread -- with a new per-game points system:

-- Wild Card round: 2 points per game;

-- Divisional round: 3 points per game;

-- Conference Finals: 4 points per game; and

-- Super Bowl: 5 points.

Here are this weekend's games, with the lines we're using:

Saturday

Cincinnati at Houston (-4)

Detroit at New Orleans (-10.5)

Sunday

Atlanta at N.Y. Giants (-3.5)

Pittsburgh (-8) at Denver

And our picks:

Stickings' Pickings

Picks: Houston, Detroit, N.Y. Giants, Denver.

I'm a little worried about going with T.J. Yates, but Houston has enough talent everywhere else to win fairly easily against an inexperienced Bengals team (with a bright future, just not a bright today). Look for Foster and Tate and whoever else is running the ball for the Texans to have big games, as well as for the Texans to put enough pressure on Dalton to throw him off his game. Unless Yates has a complete meltdown, in which case we'd get Delhomme (who has extensive playoff experience), I just don't see how Cincy even keeps this close.

There's no way I'd be picking against high-flying Brees & Co. in a pick'em, but 10.5 points is just too much in what should be a shootout. Even if the Saints go up big, the Lions could make it close in garbage time, at least coming within a TD.

I'll add some commentary on Sunday's games tomorrow. Suffice it to say that I'm way down on my beloved Steelers.

Update: Alright, it's Sunday, about 2:52 pm. The Giants are up 7-2 with the ball inside the Falcons' 5.

I took the Giants in this one mainly because of their outstanding d-line, particularly Pierre-Paul. My concern, from a Giants perspective, was the secondary. If the Falcons' o-line could do even a decent job protecting Ryan, Atlanta could get the ball down the field to White, Jones, and Gonzalez, opening up the running game for Turner as well. But credit that secondary. White has only two catches for eight yards so far, and Atlanta's often high-flying passing game has been largely shut down. Of course, if the Falcons had been able to convert that fourth-and-short in Giants territory in the first half -- and it looked like they did, it was just a bad spot -- things might be different now. 10-2 Giants. Manning was finally able to throw the ball downfield on that last drive. I suspect this game will open up now, and on the current drive Ryan is moving the ball well.

Now... Steelers-Broncos. Grantland's Barnwell made a good case the other day for a Broncos win. With the spread as big as it is, I'm definitely taking Denver. The Steelers have hardly been a dominant team this year, and this one could be another anxiety-producing affair. Certainly Pittsburgh has the talent on D to shut down Tebow, but the Steelers are vulnerable to running QBs and he may do just enough to keep the Broncos in the game, particularly with injuries to the Steelers. Notably, safety Ryan Clark, the team's leading tackler, will be out due to a serious illness that threatens his health playing at high altitudes, and the two OLBs, Harrison and Woodley, continue to nurse lingering problems.

My bigger concerns are on the other side of the ball. Big Ben clearly isn't healthy. His ankle sprain has basically made him immobile, and he can't even step into this throws. And with the Broncos throwing Miller and Dumervil at him, he could be under pressure all day, unable ever to get in rhythm and spread the field with his great receivers. Add to this the fact that Mendenhall is out and that the early-season injury problems to the o-line have returned and it's a recipe for disaster for the Steelers at Mile High. All it might take is one late-game play by Tebow, or one long kick from Prater. Yeah, I'm going with Denver and taking the points, but I think Denver might win this outright.

I'm already sick to my stomach.

Barry's Tea Leaves

Picks: Cincinnati, Detroit, N.Y. Giants, Pittsburgh.

Cincinnati over Houston: I'll pick the Bengals to win this one. The solid Cincy D is going to give Houston stand-in QB T.J. Yates fits. Come on. The kid has done well enough at times, but this is the playoffs. Bengals QB Andy Dalton has also done well in his rookie effort -- 20 TDs with 13 interceptions. He should hold up fine. In a low-scoring game. Houston by 4? Don't think so.

Detroit over New Orleans: I think New Orleans will win this game, but not by 10.5. Very high-scoring game, maybe a repeat of the Lions-Packers game. Could see both teams score 40 or more points, but the margin of victory for the Saints will be closer to 7.  Also look for Darren Sproles to have a big game. While Detroit is looking for Brees to throw the ball downfield to Graham and Colston, look for Brees to be dumping it off to Sproles for good yardage. Definitely a back-and-forth day with no huge leads at any time.

Giants over Falcons (and beating the 3.5-point spread): The Giants are peaking at the right time. They've got a respectable running game back with Bradshaw in the lineup. I love the way Eli is throwing the ball and the D is getting healthy at the right time. Sure, I'm worried about the Giants secondary so I don't think this will be a low-scoring game. I'm just expecting the New York pass rush to make it hard for Ryan to tee up for those shots down the field. That'll be the key. If the Giants' pass rush shows up, game over. If not, it'll be a long day for New York.

Pittsburgh over Denver (beating the 8-point spread): I know Steelers' RB Mendenhall is gone for the duration and Big Ben is not at his best, but I can't see Tebow having much of a game against the Steelers. And this is where playoff experience is going to matter for Pitt. Without getting fancy, it'll come down to a mature and proud franchise showing the kneeling boy how it's down. Last point is that defences are figuring Tebow out. You have to make him throw from the pocket, which he can't do. If you don't think the Steelers get this, you are wrong. Look for some terrible Tebow passing numbers for this game, like 5-10 for 57 yards.

Comfortable Kid

Picks: Houston, Detroit, N.Y. Giants, Denver.

NFL 2011: Week 17 picks

By Michael J.W. Stickings

So here we are. The last week of the season. Alas.

On the one hand, it means the playoffs are coming up, and after a long (and weird) regular season it's time to move on (not least because my beloved Steelers are, thankfully, playoff-bound, as either the second or fifth seed in the AFC). On the other hand, we're nearing the end of the season, and facing a long offseason, and even thinking about not having football makes me depressed. (I know the NFL never sleeps. Yes, a lot goes on in the offseason, and once the season's over I'll start focusing on the draft. Still, there's nothing like the real thing.)

Anyway, I don't have much time to do much in the way of analysis. I didn't even do a Week 16 post, what with most of the games falling on Christmas Eve. (I'm writing this on Saturday, New Year's Eve, the games tomorrow.) But let's get going. Our Week 17 picks are below, but first we need to play catch up to bring us right up to date.

(As you may know, my associate editor Richard, a friend of ours nicknamed Comfortable Kid, and I are tracking our picks this year, with posts going up each Sunday at 11 am. We get one point for each correct pick, along with two bonus points if we get our Upset of the Week right. If we get our Lock of the Week wrong, we lose two points as a penalty.)

**********

Here's how we were doing after Week 15:

Week 15 

MJWS: 10-6 (plus upset, minus lock) = 10 points

RKB: 9-7 (plus upset, minus lock) = 9 points
The Kid: 8-8 (minus lock) = 6 points

Yeah, we all took the Packers as our lock. Who knew?

Season through Week 15

RKB: 155-69 (10 upsets right, 3 locks wrong) = 169 points
MJWS: 153-71 (7 upsets right, 4 locks wrong) = 159 points
The Kid: 140-84 (7 upsets right, 5 locks wrong) = 144 points

**********

Here were our picks last week (Week 16):

Stickings' Pickings

Picks: Houston, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Kansas City, New England, N.Y. Giants, Pittsburgh, Washington, Carolina, Baltimore, San Diego, Dallas, San Francisco, Green Bay, New Orleans.

Lock of the Week: Green Bay.

No way the Pack were going to lose two in a row.

Upset of the Week: Buffalo.

After getting tamed by Brady and Co. at home the week before, Tebow-time grinds to a halt in Western NY. (Yeah, I got this one right.)

Barry's Tea Leaves

Picks: Houston, Denver, Arizona, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Miami, N.Y. Giants, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Washington, Carolina, Baltimore, San Diego, San Francisco, Green Bay, New Orleans.

Lock of the Week: Pittsburgh

Upset of the Week: Miami

Denver over Buffalo at Buffalo, and that is the part that makes it tricky, Buffalo this time of year. Tebow can't throw at the best of times, but if the weather is bad, well, you get it. It'll be up to Tim to run with the rock. I guess I'm assuming that he'll be able to do that enough to win.

I'm picking Arizona over the Bengals. The Cardinals have won six of their last seven, and Arizona still has Fitzgerald. The Bengals do have the better defense, I just like Arizona to keep on winning.

Jacksonville over Tennessee. As bad as Jacksonville is at throwing the ball, their D will shut down Tennessee's passing game. Don't have a great answer on this, but I think Jacksonville wins.

Chiefs over the Raiders. Chiefs have been all over the map this year, but they are pulling together at the right time.

Miami over New England. You heard me. Miami has done right by me in this little game picking exercise and New England doesn't scare anybody these days. Miami in my upset.

Pittsburgh over St. Louis. Yes.

Philadelphia will beat Dallas. I like the Eagles right now and think that Romo will tank. I need to believe this, mind you.

I'm taking Washington over Minnesota. Rex Grossman is hot and cold, but I'm guessing he has a good game.

Carolina over the Bucs, because the Bucs are just bad right now.

Baltimore will beat Cleveland, but I won't say its obvious, not after Thursday's Indy win.

San Diego over Detroit may be a stretch, but the Chargers are playing well and Detroit is not as good as advanced billing.

San Francisco should beat Seattle and Green Bay is not going to lose to Chicago, same with New Orleans over Atlanta.

Finally, my Giants should beat the Jets just on the off chance that there is a god and he will want to shut Rex Ryan up.

Comfortable Kid

Picks: Houston, Denver, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Kansas City, New England, N.Y. Giants, Pittsburgh, Washington, Carolina, Baltimore, San Diego, Dallas, San Francisco, Green Bay, New Orleans.

Lock of the Week: Green Bay.

Packers are humbled and Chicago is playing their 2nd-string QB, 3rd-string RB. Depending on what happens with San Francisco, I would be careful with Aaron Rodgers here. We might see him finish his day after the first half against this pass rush.

Upset of the Week: None

I don't have one this week. By the rules that govern what's defined as a potential upset, I can't see any teams upsetting. Unfortunately, I can't just jot down "Denver" here anymore. People seem to be believing a bit in Tebow and the Broncos, but I bet that fades after we finish celebrating the birthday of Tebow's best buddy. From what I hear, Jesus seemed like a nice guy and all, but did anyone see that first TD Tim scored last week against New England? Love that guy.

**********

Here's how we're doing after Week 16:

Week 16

MJWS: 11-5 (plus upset) = 13 points

The Kid: 10-6 = 10 points

RKB: 9-7 = 9 points

Season through Week 16

RKB: 164-76 (10 upsets right, 3 locks wrong) = 178 points
MJWS: 164-76 (8 upsets right, 4 locks wrong) = 172 points
The Kid: 150-90 (7 upsets right, 5 locks wrong) = 154 points

**********

Here are today's games:

Detroit at Green Bay

San Francisco at St. Louis

N.Y. Jets at Miami

Chicago at Minnesota

Buffalo at New England

Carolina at New Orleans

Washington at Philadelphia

Indianapolis at Jacksonville

Tennessee at Houston

Tampa Bay at Atlanta

Baltimore at Cincinnati

Pittsburgh at Cleveland

Kansas City at Denver

San Diego at Oakland

Seattle at Arizona

Dallas at N.Y. Giants

Stickings' Pickings

Picks: Detroit, San Francisco, N.Y. Jets, Chicago, New England, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Atlanta, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Denver, San Diego, Seattle, N.Y. Giants.

Fantasy is over -- and, yes, I won my hardcore league (woo-hoo!) -- but this is anything but a throwaway week for the NFL. A lot matters. I'll let Bill Simmons explain...

Okay, got that? Mostly, it's just about playoff seeding. Both the Steelers and Ravens will be in the playoffs, for example, but the AFC North title is at stake today. The two teams are tied, with the Ravens holding the tiebreaker, but a Pittsburgh win along with a Baltimore loss means the division goes to the Steelers. (I don't think that'll happen. I'm taking the Ravens over the Bengals.) And the difference between winning the losing the division is huge. The team that wins will likely have the #2 seed and a first-round bye, while the team that ends up second will have the #5 seed, meaning a wild card game out west in Denver or Oakland. The Raiders aren't great, but do you really want to go up against Tebow and the strong Broncos D at this point? I'd much rather have the week off and then (likely) play Houston in the next round.

But there are still a couple of playoff positions to determine. Will Denver or Oakland win the AFC West and get that #4 seed in the AFC? Will the Bengals or Jets be the second AFC wild card? And, of course, will the Cowboys or Giants, facing each other in today's even more overhyped than usual Sunday night game, win the always overhyped NFC East and grab the NFC's #4 seed? (My answers: Denver, Cincinnati, Giants.)

Lock of the Week: New England.

It's usually hard to know what to do with the elite teams the last week of the season because most of them end up resting their starters. But not so much this year. New England, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, San Francisco... they're all still playing for something.

The exceptions are Houston (not really an elite team, but close), which has the #3 AFC seed all sown up (to its benefit, as it needs to rest its top offensive stars, Foster and Johnson), and of course Green Bay, which is the top team in the NFC.

Anyway, I'll go with the Pats here. They should be able to beat the Bills at home in an early game (and then wait to see how the Ravens and Steelers do later). The Niners at Rams is also a solid lock, and I suspect the Falcons will crush the Bucs (unless Detroit wins and Atlanta ends up resting its starters).

Upset of the Week: Tennessee.

Now here's where it gets interesting. I've been tempted all week to go with Detroit over Green Bay (that is, over Green Bay's second-, third-, and fourth-string units). And I think the Lions have to win to keep the #5 seed over the Falcons, who are a game back (and who will likely beat Tampa).

But what about the Titans? They still have something to play for, and they're playing the Texans, who don't.

Or the Bengals? I'm going with the Ravens there, but a Cincy win would hardly be all that surprising.

Or the Cowboys? I'm going with the Giants there, but you know that'll be a tough game, and, if Romo can play through his injury, potentially a high-scoring affair that Dallas can win.

Or, you know what, the Colts? Yes, the friggin' Colts. You have to give them some credit, they're still playing hard and doing their best not to Suck for Luck (maybe out of justifiably deferential respect for Peyton, whom the players seem to want back in 2012).

I need to make up six points against Richard this week. That's not likely, but it means I need to take some risks, including with my upset. Ah, let's go with the Titans.

(I'm already stressing too much: Jets-Fins? Bears-Vikes? Bolts-Raiders? Hawks-Cards? Tough games to pick, and I'm going back and forth on all of 'em.)

Barry's Tea Leaves

Picks: Detroit, San Francisco, Miami, Minnesota, New England, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Atlanta, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, San Diego, Seattle, N.Y. Giants.

Lock of the Week: San Francisco.

Upset of the Week: Detroit.

Detroit over Green Bay: Given that the Pack have clinched the No. 1 seed, it's unlikely they will play their heavy hitters. I guess this could also mean the Lions could sit Stafford and Johnson, but I doubt they will. My guess is that it's Detroit over the Green Bay scrubs.

San Francisco over St. Louis: The Niners will be playing to lock up the No. 2 seed in the NFC. That's all we need to know. Probably no Bradford in this is one either, which puts an exclamation point on the prediction.

Miami over the New York Jets: I really thought the Jets sucked against the Giants last week, especially Mark Sanchez. On top of that, Miami did give New England a hard time. The Jets are playing for a long-shot playoff spot, but I think they've already packed it in. Miami may have given up on their post-season hopes many months ago, but they've played well lately and seem to have some pride in what they're doing.

Minnesota over Chicago: Chicago is playing with McCown at QB and Kahlil Bell at RB. Got it?

New England over Buffalo: A win secures home-field advantage throughout the playoffs for New England. And then there is that little of matter of avenging the earlier loss to the Bills.

New Orleans over Carolina: Yes, Cam Newton is very good, but the Saints could be playing for the No. 2 seed depending on the 49er game. Brees is pretty fired up after last week's record setting week. Gotta think they'll beat Cam and team.

Philadelphia over Washington: Still can't believe I picked the Eagles to go all the way this year. I guess I bought the hype. Good to see that great individual talent isn't enough and that team cohesion means something. Having said that, Vick is healthy and the Eagles are going to want to go out with a win, more than the Redskins.

Jacksonville over Indianapolis: Playing for the No. 1 overall pick. Not the kind of thing you want to be doing. Maurice Jones-Drew should be able to run all over Indy, though the Colts can surprise. With two teams as bad as these, who knows? I say Jacksonville.

Tennessee over Houston: The Titans need a win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. The Texans are playing for nothing, which means they could rest their starters. If they do, and I think they will, I predict a close game that Tennessee wins.

Atlanta over Tampa Bay: The Falcons are playing for playoff positioning so will show up. Tampa Bay? What can we say? Let it end soon, please.

Baltimore over Cincinnati: Should be close. Baltimore is trying to clinch the AFC North and No. 2 seed. Cincinnati has that good "D." You never know which Ravens team will show up, but I'm guessing the good one for this game.

Pittsburgh over Cleveland: The Steelers are also playing for a shot at the AFC North title. Big Ben will likely get a rest, but they don't need him to beat Cleveland.

Denver over Kansas City: I've toyed with loving Tebow, but can't do it. Did we see the real Timbo last week? Perhaps. Kyle Orton will want this one, a chance to beat the team that gave up on him.

San Diego over Oakland: Rivers hasn't played that well of late, but I like him to pull this one out. Oakland may still be in the hunt, but I see them coming up short. Just a feeling.

Seattle over Arizona: Two teams with nothing to play for, always fun games to pick. Seattle can impress every now and then. Skelton has done okay for the Cards. I don't know, or care.

New York Giants over Dallas Cowboys: The Giants are starting to run the ball well, and that has been the missing piece all year. When Bradshaw is in the lineup and running well, Jacobs runs well too, and Eli is a better passer. Speaking of Eli, great job last week against the Jets. Look for Jason Pierre-Paul to have a monster game for the G-Men. This kid just keeps getting better and with so much on the line, he'll have a breakout game. But I have no doubt it will be close, close enough to kill me.

Comfortable Kid

Picks: Green Bay, San Francisco, Miami, Minnesota, New England, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Houston, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Denver, San Diego, Arizona, N.Y. Giants.

Lock of the Week: New England.

Upset of the Week: Cincinnati.

Baltimore seems to be shakier on the road. I think the Bengals win here.