The Syrian uprising's interested onlookers: Iran, Israel, Russia, and Saudi Arabia

By Ali Ezzatyar

The Arab Awakening has a common denominator: the peoplewant the downfall of the regime. It is a pretty good one, too. While itensures nothing, it is the first, and perhaps the most difficult, of many stepsbefore democracy.

Bashar al-Assad, Tyrant of Syria

It goes without saying that each Arab country, with all ofits distinctions, will see its individual route meet special hurdles andcircumstances. An unfortunate reality is that many of these obstacles havenothing to do with domestic considerations at all, but rather international ones. Weknew this. It's the story of the modern Middle East.But what has become increasingly clear over the last 14 months is just howimportant one of these countries actually is to everyone else. We get somecolor on the American perspective by reading the paper. But this is how theother important players are looking at the biggest prize of the Arabdictatorship club, Syria:

Iran: Theworld's initial fears that the Arab Spring would play into the hands of thechampion of anti-Americanism, Iran,seem unfounded at this juncture. Tunisia,Egypt, and Libya, for allof their imperfections, have not turned into hotbeds of terror ripe for Iranianinfluence. Syriais the one country in the Arab dictator family that was traditionallypro-Iranian all along. It was the only Arab country that provided materialassistance to Iran duringits war with Iraq, and it isan important buffer and ally in Iran'ssupport of anti-Israeli groups. Syriaand Iranshare a disdain for the Saudi royal family; they also have had poor, oftenadversarial relations, with the Arab world's West-friendly dictators past andpresent. So while Iran touts itself asthe champion of populist and Muslim revolution, lauding Egyptian and Bahrainirevolutionaries as the continuation of the struggle for justice, it has keptits hands muddy and bloody in assisting Syria's crackdown against its own people.For Iran, the survival ofthe Ba'ath regime is imperative; it is its only genuine ally in the region, andit will stop at nothing, including assisting in the crackdown against innocentcivilians, to ensure that Syriadoes not become the Arab Awakening's next casualty.

Israel:Israeloften distinguishes itself as a democracy in a sea of dictatorships, but it washorrified by the Arab Spring when it began. The reality was, most of the Arabdictatorships had cooperative relationships with Israel, and their powerful armieshad a leash on the anti-Israeli sentiment that is rampant among theirrespective populations. There are even reports that Israelexplored the idea of sabotaging the revolution in Egypt in its early days in Tahrirsquare. But for the same reason that Egyptwas a potential nightmare, the Syrian revolution is viewed more positively in Israel. Syria is, by any account, Israel's realarch-nemesis. The two countries have been to war multiple times, and Israel occupies Syrian land in the Golan Heights. A more democratic regime, in Israel's view, is less likely to supportterrorism, and is less likely to align itself with Iran. There does remain the danger,however, of a more legitimate Syrian regime being more successful in convincingthe world that Golan should be returned. That is bad for Israel. Onaccount of this uncertainly, Israel is watching developments very closely inSyria, with a preference for the ouster of the Assad regime, replaced by aweak, fragmented Syrian government incapable of challenging Israel orharnessing support for anti-Israel groups in Lebanon.

Russia:We can always count on Russiato pull no punches with respect to disregarding human rights in the interest ofgeopolitics. And they are putting on a master-class display in Syria. Sincethe days of Hafez al-Assad, Syriahas been Russia's mostimportant ally in the Middle East; it housesan important army base there and has billions of dollars worth of commercewith the Assad regime. In addition, Bashar is a key element of theMoscow-Tehran-Damascus triangle, helping Russia compete with Americandominance in regional affairs. For the same reason that Russia refuses to come down hard on Iran vis-à-vis its nuclear activity, it hassinglehandedly (making use of its sizeable influence on China)paralyzed the international community's ability to institute a legal reprimandof the Assad regime. With Russiaon the Security Council, thousands more can die in Syria without the United Nationsgetting involved in a meaningful way.

Saudi Arabia: The primary outside supporter of the Syrian uprising, Saudi Arabia ispouring cash and arms into the hands of anyone who will help hasten Basharal-Assad's demise. It is the most worthy of missions, in the Saudi mindset, toeliminate Saudi Arabia'straditional Arab foe. Among the many proxy wars these two countries have foughtagainst each other, including in Lebanon,the downfall of Syria helpsfurther weaken Iran, thecountry that Saudi Arabiaviews as most dangerous to its survival. Iranhas called the Saudi dictatorship the least legitimate of regimes, and dreamsof the day Saudi Arabia'ssubstantial Shi'ite population, which happens to be in one of the most oil-richprovinces of the country, will rise up against the Saudi regime. This is Saudi Arabia'sdoomsday scenario.

And the Arab world's longest-lasting uprising continues.